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Who wins the Iowa Caucus? My prediction!

I see things very different then many but my views are founded with facts, so first I will give my expectations out of Iowa tonight then offer some detail as to why.

Cruz 33%

Trump 23%

Rubio 15%

If anything I expect that Cruz will surprise to the upside and here is why.

Over the last few weeks we have seen Cruz running adds that attack Trumps liberal bias, this has been confirmed by Trump in several recent interviews in Iowa. So his support for universal health care was proven just after he missed the GOP debate that's back to back negatives for his supporters.

Proof that these have effected his support came Sunday when he dropped a 15K seat stadium in favor of a 500 seat auditorium and was unable to fill it. Rubio has no ground game to speak of suggesting he will benefit from the move away from Trump but it is clear Cruz has a massive ground game and this supports the view he stands to gain the most from changes taking place in voter altitudes in Iowa.

Tonight we will learn if my perceptions of what's taking place in the last week are as accurate as I suspect. Another thing I believe will effect the out come will be turnout on average the GOP turns out 120K voters on caucus night, polls showing Trumps lead have been based on 170K or higher. Based on changes in altitude that took place last week I suspect Trump will bring out more voters then the norm but expect that to be in the 140K to 150K range. If true even the polling data we are looking at would project a Cruz win with 29% of the vote.

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Permalink Reply by DE on February 2, 2016 at 8:41am

DV..I agree...and now some may learn that God does indeed intervene in the affairs of men......The base flew to the side of Cruz when Trump tried to destroy this Godly man...So called Evangelicals in Iowa are composed.. about half ...of Catholics...those went for Trump...they are always more liberal leaning...The true evangelicals flocked to Cruz....Also the main line churches which years ago deserted the true gospel and embraced the SOCIAL GOSPEL ...went for Trump...The true Christians will crawl over broken glass to work for this Godly man...Who gave God the Glory for this great win....BTW the biggest turnout in Iowa history....as it turns out it was for Ted Cruz and not for Trump as all the pundits had predicted....Glory to Almighty God and to the Lamb of God ..our Lord Jesus Christ....

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Permalink Reply by kevin kiernan on February 2, 2016 at 7:51am

Looks like Cruz campaign played dirty politics on Carson..Typical Selfish career politicians do that.. Do you condone what the Cruz peole have done ?..Ted needs to address this. If he is silent about it, that would speak volumes..