All eyes turn to New Hampshire

[Dmitri Veans]

All eyes turn to New Hampshire

 

Last night on FOX news they talked about the 912 movement in New Hampshire fact is it is nothing but a splinter group of the tea party as they all bear different names. It amazes me they would work so hard not to acknowledge  the tea party and its accomplishments in this election cycle.

 

In New Hampshire Ted has relentlessly been visiting each of these chapters as it seems there is a different one in every city and even though New Hampshire is the bluest of blue state the movement is not gust alive but growing. In a state where only 15% consider them self's religious it has not made the state immune to the problems facing this country and the desire for change in an effort to find a solution.  

 

What we learned last night is the pro amnesty group in the GOP seems to be about a quarter of the voters, this group if you add the governors vote to Rubio's total. This likely applies to most states but not likely New Hampshire where their total may rise to the mid 40 percentile. And as we head into the last week before there primary that vote appears to be evenly divided among the governors.

 

This strongly suggests another 2 man race for victory between Cruz and Trump with a bias towards Trump based on current polling numbers. Rubio is likely to again pull up in third place based largely on the media's desire to see him topple both Trump and Cruz. At this point I would suggest watching the polls but we saw how wrong they are in Iowa with Cruz and Rubio over performing and Trump under performing.

 

I will as always post my predictions based on what I'm hearing on the ground in advance of the vote and look forward to another accurate call. See you then. 

[Dmitri Veans]

Today a poll was released showing Cruz's support jumped by 4 points from 10 to 14, this poll was conducted before the Iowa caucus results had been released. Polling data so far from New Hampshire has been accomplished with firms biased against conservatives so one can assume based on Iowa that Cruz has support before Iowa nearing 19 points. Trumps support was over stated in Iowa and this trend likely extends to NH but this still suggests Trump is the favorite in NH with support in the low thirties. I would suggest the poll on Rubio at 10 is much like Cruz to low suggesting hes in third with a mid to high teens number. This suggests at the moment we have a battle for second place, this could change as we see numbers in the coming week to size the lift seen by Marco and Cruz based on results out of Iowa.