Has Trump awakened Nixon's "Silent Majority" or the "Reagan Democrat"

[Dmitri Veans]

The Gallup poll. December, 1979.

President Jimmy Carter — 60%. Former California Governor Ronald Reagan — 36%. So confident was Carter White House Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan of the coming year’s presidential election that he boasted: “The American people are not going to elect a seventy-year-old, right-wing, ex-movie actor to be president.” Hamilton Jordan was a smart guy — and he was also wildly wrong. A little less than a year later the American people — ignoring that Gallup poll — elected Ronald Reagan to the presidency in a landslide — in a three-way race. Reagan won 50.8% of the vote to Carter’s 41%. Third party candidate John Anderson, a liberal Republican who had been defeated by Reagan in the GOP primaries, won a mere 6.6% of the vote. Reagan carried 44 states to Carter’s six plus the District of Columbia.

What happened? How could Reagan go from losing a Gallup poll to Carter by 24 points — then winning the actual election by almost 10 points? Answer? The emergence of what would become known to political history as “the Reagan Democrats.” Who were they? Blue collar, working class, largely Catholic and ethnic, they originally emerged in Richard Nixon’s 1968 and 1972 elections. In which Nixon referred to them as the “Silent Majority.” In 1980, angered by Carter’s handling of the economy, the feckless handling of the Iran hostage crisis, and the left-wing tilt of the Democrats, these voters — many of whom had voted for John F. Kennedy twenty years earlier — returned with a vengeance. Famously, Macomb County, Michigan, which cast 63% of its vote for JFK in 1960, turned around in 1980 and voted 66% for Reagan.

On Tuesday night of this week, Donald Trump appeared in Birch Run, Michigan in Saginaw County. Here’s the headline from the Detroit Free Press:

A lovefest for Donald Trump in Birch Run

The story begins:

BIRCH RUN, Mich. — Addressing about 2,000 very enthusiastic people at the Birch Run Expo Center, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump touched on everything from immigration, China, the military, Obamacare and his Republican opponents.

The crowd, some coming from outside of Michigan, ate it up, giving him frequent standing ovations and breaking into chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump!” and “U.S.A, U.S.A.”

The obvious question. Are Reagan Democrats returning to the center of the American political scene — this time known as Trump Democrats?

A new CNN poll in Iowa has some very revealing stats. The poll notes:

Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle. Overall, Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He’s most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

The poll targets Republicans only. But as in 1980 with Reagan, it doesn’t take much imagination to think that Trump’s overwhelming lead in categories like those with less than a college education or those earning less than $50,000 bodes well for his ability to win Democratic votes in considerable numbers.

A curiosity here is the reaction of Trump opponent Senator Rand Paul, who seems in his wrath at Trump to be channeling the late GOP Establishment champion President Gerald Ford. Headlines the Washington Post of a new Paul commercial attacking Trump:

New Rand Paul video basically calls Donald Trump a closet Democrat 

The Post reports:

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign on Wednesday released an aggressive attack video questioning business mogul Donald Trump’s conservative bona fides.

“I probably identify more as a Democrat,” Trump is shown saying in the video. “I’ve been around for a long time, and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.” The words imposed on the screen as Trump speaks: “I … IDENTIFY MORE AS A DEMOCRAT.” [The all-caps are all theirs.]

Hmmm. Compare the Paul attack with this story about the 1976 GOP primary campaign in Texas between Ronald Reagan and then-President Ford. Records Reagan biographer Steven F. Hayward in the first volume of his book The Age of Reagan: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order: 1964-1980:

During the Texas campaign Reagan began using a signature line in his appeal for crossover votes: “I was a Democrat most of my life.” Ford and the Republican Establishment professed outrage. Imagine! Seeking Democratic votes! (As if a Republican could win the White House without Democratic votes.)… The idea of “Reagan Democrats” had not yet entered the political lexicon.

Just as Trump is now seen on tape saying he was a Democrat, so too was Reagan cited for the same issue. In fact, as heard here in this YouTube audio tape, there is Reagan captured singing the praises of Harry Truman in a 1948 speech endorsing Truman and also then-Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey who was running for the U.S. Senate — and would later become the 1968 Democratic nominee for president. Listening to the tape of Reagan and he sounds like nothing more than a late forties version of Barack Obama — railing against corporations and Republicans.

One is flummoxed that Senator Paul — as reported in the Los Angeles Times — was not long ago demanding that the GOP reach out to minorities — aka Democrats. Headlined the Times:

 

Rand Paul in Irvine says Republicans must broaden appeal to minorities

The story drove the point home:

As he traveled through Southern California on a two-day trip, Republican Sen. Rand Paul called on his party Friday to widen its outreach to minority voters, whom he said will help propel the party to victories nationwide.…

“People want know how we're going to win?” he said. “We're going to have to be different. We're going to have to be the new GOP.”…

In a brief interview with The Times before his speech, Paul, who has labeled himself a “different kind of Republican,” said his message of party outreach to minorities has resonated.…

“I don't care if it’s in an all-white evangelical church or all-Republican gathering, people need to hear it,” he said. “I’m a believer that for the Republican Party to grow, we need to be a broader, more diverse party.”

Amazing, no? On the one hand Senator Paul is demanding outreach to become a “broader, more diverse party.” When Trump does just that — like the 1976 Ford campaign and GOP Establishment suddenly Paul recoils, professing outrage at Trump’s background as a Democrat — precisely the same charge hurled at Reagan by Ford.

You can’t make this stuff up.

There is a long, long way to go in this campaign. But one suspects that Donald Trump — as was true in that blue collar, auto-making state of Michigan the other night — is in the process of demonstrating just what Ronald Reagan once demonstrated to great effect.

Namely? Namely that having once been a Democrat is in fact nothing but an asset for a potential Republican nominee for president. The kind of asset that produces landslide Republican victories.

 

http://spectator.org/articles/63765/are-reagan-democrats-becoming-trump-democrats

[Dmitri Veans]

[Dmitri Veans]

Former New York Mayor Rudy Giuliani appears on Tuesday's edition of MSNBC's Morning Joe and takes questions from host Joe Scarborough and the panelists.

 

 

RUDY GIULIANI: I was laughed at two months ago, three months ago when I said he's a serious candidate and could get the nomination. 

JOE SCARBOROUGH: And why do you say that? 

GIULIANI: Because I know him. He is an extraordinarily smart guy. He learns on the fly. He picks things up very, very quickly. Very quickly. And we have always known him kind of as a showman. But we don't -- We have never seen his intellect. It is a very big - it's a big intellect, it's a strong intellect. So you combine his showmanship with his intellect -- 

SCARBOROUGH: But wait -- Let me stop you right there. You say that there are a lot of people, a lot of elites that roll their eyes. 

MIKA BRZEZINSKI: Just like a record just went (INAUDIBLE) like that - 

SCARBOROUGH: Yeah, can you explain that? Because you don't come from Queens, even if your dad was a big developer, come and dominate Manhattan real estate, have to fight all of the crazy nonsense you have to fight in New York City, zonings, restrictions, counsel, mayors of all stripes, without being pretty brilliant and they known him because they think he is only worth $4 billion instead of $10 billion. Talk about that intellect. What does he get? Why do you think -- 

GIULIANI: That's why I think they understatement him. I compared him and got really criticized in one way and I mean this in one way, to Ronald Reagan. Ronald Reagan always had one great advantage. He was always underestimated. He was always the dumb actor. Brown made that mistake when he ran for governor. Oh yeah, I want to run against Reagan. Reagan is the dumb actor.

Carter made that mistake. Carter wanted to run against Reagan instead of Bush. Oh, that dumb actor. Well, it wasn't a dumb actor. It was a very, very smart actor. If you read Reagan's books and his letters to Mrs. Reagan, you will see what a great writer Ronald Reagan was. Ronald Reagan was a fabulous writer .

SCARBOROUGH: I actually even heard Keith Olbermann in 2003 or 2004, around the time Reagan died, saying he never knew Reagan's intellect until he started reading the letters. 

GIULIANI: Donald has been underestimated from the beginning. So here is the estimation of him and here he is. But it's going to get real close. There are a couple of other really good candidates on the Republican side.

 

 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/video/2015/10/13/giuliani_trump_ha...

 

[Dmitri Veans]

A recent poll evaluating how a Trump third party bid would effect the election shows trump taking 36% of republicans and 19% of democrats all but insuring a democrat victory. Switch that to the head of the republican ticket and you see Trump pulling 19% from the Democrat. Just like Reagan and Nixon it insures victory for Trump on election day.

 

source: http://www.washingtonexaminer.com/trump-third-party-run-36-gop-supp...

[Dmitri Veans]

If Donald Trump were the GOP nominee, he would cause the highest voter turnout, relative to any other Republican hopeful.John Kasich, on the other hand, would keep people at home.

No matter what party affiliation you consider, Trump brings them out. Republicans, Democrats and independents are all most likely to show up if Trump is on the ballot. (In our analysis, we assumed a constant variable: the Democrats nominating Hillary Clinton.) 

Not only do they show up to vote, but they vote for Trump. He's got the highest percentage of voters — across both parties and independents.

The other candidates cause more of a snooze response from the public. Among the Republicans surveyed, Kasich caused the lowest voter turnout. But Ben Carson, Jeb Bush, Marco Rubio, and Carly Fiorina all saw lower voter turnouts compared with Trump.

Kasich would have the lowest turnout if you measured Republican voters only. That's also true with independents. Here's Trump's take on the matter:

But if you look at Democrats, the candidate that causes them the least worry is Fiorina. If she were on the ballot against Clinton, that's when the most blue voters stay home. Somehow the threat of Fiorina isn't strong enough to get them to show up.

This is all data from Fluent, a leading consumer marketing and advertising technology firm. The company counts many top political campaigns as clients, including some of the leading 2016 presidential hopefuls. The survey was conducted on Nov. 18 among 2,026 adult Americans.

The lagging candidates "need to really start beating the drum and getting their 'brands' out there," said Jordan Cohen, Fluent's chief marketing officer. He said they "should be focused right now on lower cost, higher return marketing investments," which could help to hire PR operatives or running TV ads. One example of that low cost approach is building out an email list and then sending emails to that group to bring in donors. President Barack Obama mastered that approach in his 2008 and 2012 wins.

And for those wondering, according to the latest polls fromRealClearPolitics, Clinton would win most of these head-to-head battles. It's still very early in the cycle, so a lot is going to change. That's the one thing we know for sure.

http://www.cnbc.com/2015/11/24/voters-would-show-up-if-trump-is-on-...

[DE]

interesting DV...........

[DE]

I actuall stated this awhile back..that he would bring in the Reagan dems...based only on my instincts...

[jack ludwig]

those numbers say absolutely nothing. DV, what is 79% of 36%, 75% of 22% and 51% of 42%? In case, you don't know 36%, 22% and 42% are the numbers of democrat, republican and independent voters. Factors all those numbers into your handicap system and select the winner.

[Dmitri Veans]

Try reading it for what it is not what it isn't. 

[kevin kiernan]

DV. You really got to stop that mind warping explanations. I got a headache from that one. LOL :)

[jack ludwig]

DV, I read it for what it is worth, nothing. No factual information.

[BLADES]

Donald Trump in Unearthed Interview: I Identify More As a Democrat

[Dmitri Veans]

Democrats had the Wight house, senate and house under their control, hes a good business man what did you think he would say. Reagan was a democrat until he decided to run as a Republican or have you forgotten that fact. The Donald switched parties just after Obama was elected and from that point on gave more money to Republicans running for office by a 3 to 1 margin. Prior he was giving more to democrats but by a small margin.