Nightmare scenario for establishment: Trump or Cruz

[Dmitri Veans]

Nightmare scenario for establishment: Trump or Cruz

 

Three candidates for the Republican nomination have broken away from the rest of the pack, and two of them — businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — give the GOP establishment nightmares.

That leaves the third member of the trio, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, potentially well placed to pick up the support of center-right Republican voters who are looking for someone to stop Trump and Cruz at almost any cost. 

But Rubio is behind both of his top-tier rivals in national polling averages and is even further back in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, where he holds fourth place, albeit behind the fast-fading Ben Carson.

An even deeper problem for the Florida senator is that other candidates who are competing for the same voters are unlikely to drop out before the New Hampshire primary. That means votes that might otherwise go to Rubio could instead be won by contenders such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Add all these factors together and it becomes clear why establishment Republicans are so concerned, especially in the wake of Trump’s inflammatory call to ban Muslims from entering the United States. Cruz, meanwhile, has been enjoying a rapid rise in the polls.

“Listen, I think both Cruz and Trump would have a similar impact on the party, neither of which would be very good. I am actually more concerned about Cruz than I am about Trump,” said GOP strategist John Feehery, a former senior leadership aide who is a columnist for The Hill.

Feehery added, “I think Cruz has made a reputation of relentless mendacity ... I think he’s a demagogue and I think he’ll destroy the party. I think Trump is much more of a blowhard. But there’s not really a dime’s worth of difference between Trump and Cruz.”

As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump sat atop the RealClearPolitics national polling average, with the backing of 29.3 percent of GOP voters, with Cruz in second, at 15.5 percent. Rubio was just behind, with 14.8 percent. In Iowa, where the first caucuses will be held on Feb. 1, Cruz runs much closer, with 22.3 percent average support to Trump’s 25.7 percent. Rubio is farther behind in the Hawkeye State than nationally, drawing 13.7 percent backing.

Trump’s comments calling for a “shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S. have been condemned by many Republicans, as well as Democrats and unaligned observers. Included among his critics are Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who both lambasted him on Tuesday. The condemnation of a party’s presidential front-runner by that same party’s most senior members of Congress is without precedent, at least in modern times.

The opprobrium from on high will not necessarily doom Trump. A Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday indicated that 64 percent of likely Republican primary voters supported the idea of temporarily banning Muslims from coming to America. 

But Washington Republicans shake their heads at the damage they believe the real estate tycoon is inflicting on the party’s image. They are also enraged about his suggestion that he could mount a third-party run if he is not treated in a way that he deems fair during the GOP primary process.

“Donald Trump says he might make a third-party run if he is mistreated by the party, but Donald Trump has severely mistreated the Republican Party with his outlandish and over-the-top statements against Hispanics, women and now against religion in terms of Muslims,” said Ron Bonjean, a GOP consultant and former aide to House and Senate Republican leaders.

Bonjean expressed less outrage about Cruz personally, but just as much skepticism about his chances of prevailing in a general election.

Alluding to reports that Cruz and his advisers believe he can win the White House by boosting enthusiasm and turnout solely among the conservative base, Bonjean said, “If Cruz would follow through on his promise not to court the middle, we would lose the general election.”

The Cruz camp has also made the case it can win over “Reagan Democrats” in the general election, though some Republicans are skeptical.

All of the GOP establishment angst could be good news for Rubio. The fact that he has now achieved a degree of separation from other establishment-friendly choices such as Bush, Kasich and Christie could create a snowball effect where more voters are drawn to his banner.

Asked if the shift toward Rubio could pick up speed, South Carolina GOP strategist Dave Woodard said, “I think it could — and the reason is, he says all the right things.”

Woodard, who is also a professor of political science at Clemson University, outlined the traits that many people believe would make Rubio a strong candidate in a general election, including his youth, his oratorical ability and his heritage as the son of Cuban immigrants.

“People who are concerned about losing again — and that’s what it boils down to — might say, ‘I hadn’t really considered Rubio but he looks like the best establishment choice. I might go with him,’ ” Woodard said.

Others who favor establishment candidates caution that Rubio does not have that segment of the party anywhere close to locked down, however. 

Feehery said he believes that Rubio is the candidate Democrats fear the most, but added that he isn’t sure the center-right vote would necessarily coalesce around him. He noted that Christie has been gaining ground in New Hampshire, and added, “I wouldn’t count Bush out.” 

He noted that previous candidates who have appealed to the establishment wing in both major parties have come through dire straits to win the nomination in the end. He cited Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 as examples.

Centrist Republicans believe the party needs to act soon in order to defeat Trump and Cruz.

“There needs to be a consolidation of candidates that attract white-collar and establishment voters, and that will compete for the nomination,” said Bonjean. “At this point, you are seeing some movement in the establishment toward Rubio — a little bit. It feels like a plate-shifting is happening.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/262744-nightmare-scenario-for-establishment-trump-or-cruz

[DE]

Another winning pos Dv.........................

[Dmitri Veans]

This is what our current political class is doing to us, Support Trump or Cruz and the 1% lose power. 

America’s middle class has lost nearly 30% of wealth

The rich are getting richer and those in the middle class are getting poorer.

More American households make up the middle class than 40 years ago, yet they comprise a smaller share of overall wealth. In early 2015, there were 120.8 million adults in middle-income households versus 70.3 million in lower-income and 51 million in upper-income households, according to a new analysis of government data by the Pew Research Center, a nonprofit think tank in Washington, D.C.

However, the share of income held by middle-income families has plunged to 43% of households in 2015 versus 62% in 1971; lower-income households have remained stable (at around 9% in 2015) while the share of income held by upper-income households has surged to 49% in 2015 from 29% in 1971. (The demographic and income data were derived from the government’s nationwide and nationally representative “Current Population Survey, Annual Social and Economic Supplements” (or ASEC), which serves the basis for the U.S. Census Bureau reports on income and poverty.)

“The hollowing of the American middle class has proceeded steadily for more than four decades since 1971,” researchers Richard Fry and Rakesh Kochhar wrote. “Each decade has ended with a smaller share of adults living in middle-income households than at the beginning of the decade, and no single decade stands out as having triggered or hastened the decline in the middle.” That said, the last 15 years have been particularly brutal for the middle class: In 2014, the median income of these households was 4% less than it was in 2000. What’s more, their median wealth — that is, their assets minus their debts— fell by 28% from 2001 to 2013, due in part to the housing market crisis and the Great Recession of 2008.

And this conundrum of America’s middle class — who are more in number but make up a smaller share of aggregate net income — may explain why politicians often reference “middle class Americans” in their stump speeches. In his 2015 State of the Union address, President Barack Obama spoke about how to help this hard-to-define group. “Middle-class economics means helping working families feel more secure in a world of constant change,” he said. There was no mention of working, lower or upper class people. The reason? “It’s the center, both politically and economically, that has the power to elect the president of the United States,” says Mark Hamrick, Washington, D.C., bureau chief at personal finance site 

http://www.marketwatch.com/story/americas-middle-class-has-lost-nearly-30-of-wealth-2015-12-09?dist=lcountdown

[BLADES]

hope you took time to watch cruz's speech it makes the decision a lot easier....oh and trump is the poster boy for the 1%

[Dmitri Veans]

LOL look in the mirror on that one. 

You are the one who posted Bush billionaire barker attacks Trump as if it was important. LOL. 

[BLADES]

could you explain the mirror thing ...not sure what you meant...

[jack ludwig]

Blades can you reference the speech by Cruz you are referring to? I am not aware of any new speech Cruz has made.

[BLADES]

Sen. Cruz Delivers National Security Address at The Heritage Foundation

Published on Dec 10, 2015

this is among many ...check his youtube page for more

[jack ludwig]

Thank you Blades for the connection to Cruz speech, I think? After a 54 minute speech, it takes great effort on my part to remain mentally connected to the speech. Particularly when I find issues what is being said at the very beginning of the speech. Communism was never defeated in the 1980's, it is alive and well and even stronger than it ever was. It is the reason we are defenseless against any advocacy in nearly the past 100 years. Cruz reminds me of the typical sports fan who watches his team get beat and then offers his critique of why they lost and how they could have won. Criticism after the fact is easy, worthless but easy. The only thing it accomplishes is to demonstrate how little knowledge the person has in the critique. Cruz has missed his calling, he should have considered the field of historical analysis expert, so he could offer his analysis of what actually took place in history. I could take time picking apart every aspect of the speech, but that would be a waste of my time and everyone else that took the time to read my critique.

[Dmitri Veans]

Chris Matthews: Trump Resonating with ‘Little Guy’ Permanent Political Class Has Sold Out on Immigration, Trade, Nat. Security

On Tuesday’s Hardball, MSNBC host Chris Matthews said Donald Trump is resonating with “the little guy” who thinks the bipartisan permanent political establishment that Hillary Clinton and Jeb Bush personify has sold him out on issues like immigration, trade, and terrorism and is completely out of touch with their hopes, fears, and concerns.

Matthews said that though he agreed with the political establishment “about Trump’s un-American call to stop Muslims at the airport,” there is a “reason Trump’s out there and people are buying him.”

“There’s a huge vacuum in this country,” Matthews continued. “And this guy is filling it.”

http://www.breitbart.com/big-journalism/2015/12/09/chris-matthews-trump-resonating-with-little-guy-permanent-political-class-has-sold-out-on-immigration-trade-nat-security/

[Dmitri Veans]

Obama lied to get elected, told all he was the man of the people. Income inequaty has risen faster with this president then any other in modern history. 

[kevin kiernan]

Cruz , with his speech this morning has totally made every progressive, generic,GOP, RINO. Republican realize that they are cooked.. He nailed it for sure. I have said that one of my rules of picking a candidate would be that a career politician would have a strike against him. Ted is a career politician, but every rule can have exceptions. I may just have to make one in Ted`s case for sure. GREAT SPEECH .I do believe Ted is a real deal Patriot. I have always like him, and he let me know today that I am right about him.If I had to vote today it would be for him.

[Dmitri Veans]

You have a good head on your shoulders Kevin, welcome to the revolution.