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Like most nightmares, this one probably won’t come true. But the very fact that Donald Trump and Marine Le Pen are running strongly for the American and French presidencies says something disturbing about the health of liberal democracy in the west. In confusing and scary times, voters seem tempted to turn to “strong” nationalistic leaders — western versions of Russia’s Vladimir Putin.
In Washington recently, I found most mainstream political analysts dismissing the idea that Mr Trump could win the Republican nomination, let alone the presidency. This struck me as complacent. If Mr Trump were a normal candidate he would be regarded as favourite for the nomination. He is ahead in the crucial early states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina.
Outrageous remarks about Mexicans, Muslims, the disabled and women have not dented his popularity.
Many Democrats chortle that if the Republicans are mad enough to nominate Mr Trump, he would certainly be trounced by Hillary Clinton in the presidential election. But even that cannot be assumed. The most recent national poll on a Trump v Clinton contest had Mr Trump winning by five points.
Some of Mr Trump’s statements are so openly racist that they make Ms Le Pen look like a moderate. The leader of the French far right has been carefully softening her image in preparation for a run at the presidency in 2017. Even before the terrorist attacks in Paris, almost all surveys showed her reaching the final round of the election. This month her National Front may make a significant breakthrough by winning regional elections, making it look more like a potential party of government.
The rise of the political extremes is not confined to the US and France. Ultra-nationalist parties are in power in Hungary and Poland, both members of the EU. Nationalist parties are on the rise in Scotland and Catalonia, threatening the survival of the UK and Spain as nation states.
A sense of crisis is growing in Germany with the expected arrival of more than 1m refugees this year, leading to a backlash against Chancellor Angela Merkel’s government. With recessions and debt crises in southern Europe, “fringe” parties have moved into government in Greece and Portugal.
So what is going on in western politics? The overarching development is a loss of faith in traditional political elites and a search for radical alternatives. Behind that, it seems to me, there are four broad trends: an increase in economic insecurity, a backlash against immigration, a fear of terrorism and the decline of traditional media.
The US has now experienced several decades of declining or stagnant real wages for the majority of Americans. In many European countries, including France, double-digit rates of unemployment have become the norm. The financial crisis of 2008 has resulted in an enduring loss of trust in the competence of elites and the fairness and stability of western economic systems.
Economic insecurity has been supplemented by a sense of social instability, linked to rising immigration. The influx of Hispanics into the US and of Muslims into western Europe has allowed the Trumps and Le Pens to argue that feckless elites have allowed fundamental social changes to take place without consulting ordinary people. Mr Trump has called for the deportation of 11m illegal immigrants from the US and Ms Le Pen once compared Muslims praying in the streets of France to the Nazi occupation.
Nicolas Sarkozy, the former French president, who is likely to run against Ms Le Pen in 2017, has joined in the assault on “multiculturalism”. This kind of rhetoric about Muslim immigration and elite betrayal is also now commonplace in Germany.
In the wake of the Paris attacks, fear of terrorism is merging with hostility to immigration. The shockwave from the French capital was felt across the Atlantic — where Mr Trump, along with most of the Republican field, has been quick to claim that admitting refugees would increase the risk of a terrorist attack.
For populists, nationalists and extremists across the western world, a common theme is that the mainstream media are suppressing debate and are controlled by an untrustworthy elite. Republican candidates have learnt that chastising reporters is an easy way to win applause. In France and Germany the argument that the politically correct “lying media” have suppressed debate about immigration is increasingly popular. Meanwhile, the rise of social media has allowed alternative narratives to flourish. Those Americans who want to believe that President Barack Obama is a Muslim find like-minded souls online or in the echo chamber of talk radio. Conspiratorial talk is flourishing on social media in Europe.
The late senator Daniel Moynihan said: “Everyone is entitled to his own opinion, but not to his own facts.” In the age of social media, that is no longer true. For the likes of Mr Trump, Ms Le Pen and Mr Putin, anything can be labelled “true”. In this climate, against a backdrop of economic, social and physical insecurity, extremism flourishes.
http://www.ft.com/intl/cms/s/0/e7b61eae-974d-11e5-9228-87e603d47bdc.html#axzz3szixX5hj
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DV
could provide links or proof that anyone in the USA has been prosecuted for any of the things you listed above...I think you are wrong and it has NEVER happened...
thanks
steve
DV
I hope you didnt mean that as an answer to my question...
please provide link to anyone who has been prosecuted for hate speech??????
..AS YOU STATED ABOVE!!!?????
Change the word hate speech to hate crime except the warning from the DOJ to prosecute hate speech against Islam which started this post. As to the bigotry from the left it makes no difference. Hitler took guns from the people so he could control them with fear. He also prosecuted only Jews. The Democrats want to take our guns, are releasing Mexicans and blacks from jail and make sure all hate crimes prosecuted are of whites. They want to open our boarders to Muslims and Mexicans putting the lives of Americans in danger all in the name of votes. Democrats are bigoted thats all to easy to prove,
as long as you change the word hate speech to hate crime in your original post then you have standing but until then your statement is false based on the wording...
and as for you new statement hate speech verses crime ....all crime should be prosecuted and if the AG is not doing it then it is incumbent upon the House of rep and/or senate to either remove lynch or defund the DOJ...as for all the hitler stuff your getting to off topic too keep up with you..
we only have the GOP to stop the dems and they seem to be in cahoots with them...
Actually Blades,
There are prosecutions for "Hate Speech" and to me they are a travesty and completely ignoring the First Amendment. Even the concept of Hate Speech as a crime is Unconstitutional in my opinion, just like Hate Crime is double jeopardy for committing a crime. Two penalties for the same crime.
Link to Prosecution for hate speech; https://reason.com/blog/2015/06/05/montana-hate-speech-case
interesting article I wonder what was the final outcome...
that said what he was saying was inciting a riot or promoting that a crime be commited..they may call it hate speech in the headline but he clearly is stating that people should be killed and for that he should be prosecuted to the fullest..
I am sure that you would feel the same way if he asking that you and your family were the ones to be killed
Blades,
The legal test for advocating murder was not satisfied for his case. People say basically the same thing when they advocate killing Jihadists in self defense, or spouting off about killing the lot of them in a fit of passion. I may be wrong but the way I read it he did not advocate a plan to do the things he proposed, and neither did he provide a link that proposed his assertions were factual. What he said, and the ways he phrased those vile comments were stated as Opinions. My opinion of him is that he's a Bigoted Nut Case..
like I said I would like to know not only the final outcome but the details of the case...
example ..it is not illegal to yell fire in crowded theater...but it is illegal to do it for the purpose of causing chaos or harm...and that is the detail I would like to know about this case.
but to state on topic of what DV said above is that it is not as common as the premise she is pushing....as there is only one case presented and it is an unknown since there are no details ...''here''
If that's true then why are they not arresting and charging black lives mater leaders for demanding that blacks rise up and kill cops, and in that case we have seen blacks take up the challenge and kill cops at gas pumps and alike.
Dimitri,
The Democratic Party was all for keeping Slavery and that is when the Republicans split off from them. The Democrats helped form and protect the KKK. It was the party responsible for the Jim Crow laws. the list goes on and on. the main thing they are excellent at is lying convincingly to the people to make them believe they are for them and against the Rich. That's from the richest party out there with more millionaires than the Republicans.
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