Has Trump awakened Nixon's "Silent Majority" or the "Reagan Democrat"

[Dmitri Veans]

The Gallup poll. December, 1979.

President Jimmy Carter — 60%. Former California Governor Ronald Reagan — 36%. So confident was Carter White House Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan of the coming year’s presidential election that he boasted: “The American people are not going to elect a seventy-year-old, right-wing, ex-movie actor to be president.” Hamilton Jordan was a smart guy — and he was also wildly wrong. A little less than a year later the American people — ignoring that Gallup poll — elected Ronald Reagan to the presidency in a landslide — in a three-way race. Reagan won 50.8% of the vote to Carter’s 41%. Third party candidate John Anderson, a liberal Republican who had been defeated by Reagan in the GOP primaries, won a mere 6.6% of the vote. Reagan carried 44 states to Carter’s six plus the District of Columbia.

What happened? How could Reagan go from losing a Gallup poll to Carter by 24 points — then winning the actual election by almost 10 points? Answer? The emergence of what would become known to political history as “the Reagan Democrats.” Who were they? Blue collar, working class, largely Catholic and ethnic, they originally emerged in Richard Nixon’s 1968 and 1972 elections. In which Nixon referred to them as the “Silent Majority.” In 1980, angered by Carter’s handling of the economy, the feckless handling of the Iran hostage crisis, and the left-wing tilt of the Democrats, these voters — many of whom had voted for John F. Kennedy twenty years earlier — returned with a vengeance. Famously, Macomb County, Michigan, which cast 63% of its vote for JFK in 1960, turned around in 1980 and voted 66% for Reagan.

On Tuesday night of this week, Donald Trump appeared in Birch Run, Michigan in Saginaw County. Here’s the headline from the Detroit Free Press:

A lovefest for Donald Trump in Birch Run

The story begins:

BIRCH RUN, Mich. — Addressing about 2,000 very enthusiastic people at the Birch Run Expo Center, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump touched on everything from immigration, China, the military, Obamacare and his Republican opponents.

The crowd, some coming from outside of Michigan, ate it up, giving him frequent standing ovations and breaking into chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump!” and “U.S.A, U.S.A.”

The obvious question. Are Reagan Democrats returning to the center of the American political scene — this time known as Trump Democrats?

A new CNN poll in Iowa has some very revealing stats. The poll notes:

Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle. Overall, Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He’s most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

The poll targets Republicans only. But as in 1980 with Reagan, it doesn’t take much imagination to think that Trump’s overwhelming lead in categories like those with less than a college education or those earning less than $50,000 bodes well for his ability to win Democratic votes in considerable numbers.

A curiosity here is the reaction of Trump opponent Senator Rand Paul, who seems in his wrath at Trump to be channeling the late GOP Establishment champion President Gerald Ford. Headlines the Washington Post of a new Paul commercial attacking Trump:

New Rand Paul video basically calls Donald Trump a closet Democrat 

The Post reports:

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign on Wednesday released an aggressive attack video questioning business mogul Donald Trump’s conservative bona fides.

“I probably identify more as a Democrat,” Trump is shown saying in the video. “I’ve been around for a long time, and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.” The words imposed on the screen as Trump speaks: “I … IDENTIFY MORE AS A DEMOCRAT.” [The all-caps are all theirs.]

Hmmm. Compare the Paul attack with this story about the 1976 GOP primary campaign in Texas between Ronald Reagan and then-President Ford. Records Reagan biographer Steven F. Hayward in the first volume of his book The Age of Reagan: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order: 1964-1980:

During the Texas campaign Reagan began using a signature line in his appeal for crossover votes: “I was a Democrat most of my life.” Ford and the Republican Establishment professed outrage. Imagine! Seeking Democratic votes! (As if a Republican could win the White House without Democratic votes.)… The idea of “Reagan Democrats” had not yet entered the political lexicon.

Just as Trump is now seen on tape saying he was a Democrat, so too was Reagan cited for the same issue. In fact, as heard here in this YouTube audio tape, there is Reagan captured singing the praises of Harry Truman in a 1948 speech endorsing Truman and also then-Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey who was running for the U.S. Senate — and would later become the 1968 Democratic nominee for president. Listening to the tape of Reagan and he sounds like nothing more than a late forties version of Barack Obama — railing against corporations and Republicans.

One is flummoxed that Senator Paul — as reported in the Los Angeles Times — was not long ago demanding that the GOP reach out to minorities — aka Democrats. Headlined the Times:

 

Rand Paul in Irvine says Republicans must broaden appeal to minorities

The story drove the point home:

As he traveled through Southern California on a two-day trip, Republican Sen. Rand Paul called on his party Friday to widen its outreach to minority voters, whom he said will help propel the party to victories nationwide.…

“People want know how we're going to win?” he said. “We're going to have to be different. We're going to have to be the new GOP.”…

In a brief interview with The Times before his speech, Paul, who has labeled himself a “different kind of Republican,” said his message of party outreach to minorities has resonated.…

“I don't care if it’s in an all-white evangelical church or all-Republican gathering, people need to hear it,” he said. “I’m a believer that for the Republican Party to grow, we need to be a broader, more diverse party.”

Amazing, no? On the one hand Senator Paul is demanding outreach to become a “broader, more diverse party.” When Trump does just that — like the 1976 Ford campaign and GOP Establishment suddenly Paul recoils, professing outrage at Trump’s background as a Democrat — precisely the same charge hurled at Reagan by Ford.

You can’t make this stuff up.

There is a long, long way to go in this campaign. But one suspects that Donald Trump — as was true in that blue collar, auto-making state of Michigan the other night — is in the process of demonstrating just what Ronald Reagan once demonstrated to great effect.

Namely? Namely that having once been a Democrat is in fact nothing but an asset for a potential Republican nominee for president. The kind of asset that produces landslide Republican victories.

 

http://spectator.org/articles/63765/are-reagan-democrats-becoming-trump-democrats

[Dmitri Veans]

My Son tells me Trump and Cruz had three very long meeting with Trump in Vegas and they worked out a plan to take it to the general. Polls clearly show Trump winning and if Cruz tells his delegates to vote for Trump first round Trump wins and Cruz would be VP. I hear when a deal like this is made even if Trump does not need the votes Cruz will still be VP. Its also being said that Trump stated if he came in second he would not accept VP but would toss his votes to Cruz. If its not just speculation it sounds fantastic to me, my son did not know how much of this is fact or embellishment as the story changes hands. 

[Dmitri Veans]

My Son tells me Trump and Cruz had three very long meeting with Trump in Vegas and they worked out a plan to take it to the general. Polls clearly show Trump winning and if Cruz tells his delegates to vote for Trump first round Trump wins and Cruz would be VP. I hear when a deal like this is made even if Trump does not need the votes Cruz will still be VP. Its also being said that Trump stated if he came in second he would not accept VP but would toss his votes to Cruz. If its not just speculation it sounds fantastic to me, my son did not know how much of this is fact or embellishment as the story changes hands. 

[Virginia Foulk]

Certainly is an interesting read on what seems to be coming up.  What does worry me is so many GOP out there say they'd vote for Hillary if Trump wins.  Some believe he would destroy America. Huh???

[kevin kiernan]

Virginia. If the establishment GOPers want to vote for Hillary, That tells me they only care about Party and not Country.I do not think Trump could do near the damage that Hillary would do.Trump does care and wants this country to win again. It is just a matter of if you think he is best suited for the job. If he were to win I would get behind his effort with my fingers crossed.. If Trump won and had Ted VP, Ted would help keep him grounded on the constitution. Donald would use Ted in many ways that a VP has never been used before.IMO..Trump knows how to use people and their positions to get done what he wants to get done. Do not be that nervous about a Trump Victory. Just pray that he will be all he says he will be. He would not want the embarrassment of a failed Presidency after putting it on the line like he has. My guy is still Rand Paul, but things do not look so good for him unless he makes a move soon.Do not be scared about our future, We will win .

[Virginia Foulk]

I will vote for Cruz, if at all possible, but Trump will get both my vote and my husband's if that is the result.  Just wanted to put that message out there, because I have noticed 2 or 3 articles that hint about Hillary getting a GOP vote if Trump wins the Primary. As for Trump, I have my concerns about his leadership potential. Though I like his strong stances. As far as I'm concerned it's anyone but Hillary or Bush or Christie. Though a few other GOP candidates are less likely to get my consideration.

[Dmitri Veans]

Every election cycle the media fills the air with lies, the first and biggest is we need a moderate to win the general election. The truth be told Iowa is the first and most conservative state to vote and if you are the republican nominee and don't take Iowa you loose the general election. Bush won Iowa and won the general, McCain and Romney both lost Iowa and lost the general election.

 

With Trump they say he cant win the general election because he's to inflammatory yet polling data and friends in the black community tell us they will vote for Trump by over 25%, Bush carried 18% and just barely won, no Democrat has ever won losing such a large percentage of the black vote.

 

Every election cycle the media and the establishment in Washington lie and tell republicans how to lose an election. This time no one is listening thank god. 

[Hankelvis]

Voter fraud (including control of the media) was the only way the Dems won at all period.
I hope no one is so stupid that they would vote for communists because trump got the nomination. Cruz will be the next POTUS. It goes, black, Mexican, white guy (except leap year when anything goes).

[Hankelvis]

Hank, you lack sensitivity and political correctness.

You need to cow down to the straw man a lot more and show fear of what the minority might think if they were even engaged in the conversation and if the country wasn't being led around by billionaires that control mass media and public thought.

[kevin kiernan]

Looks like the pavement was hot.

[Dmitri Veans]

On the heels of the disastrous and obscene Omnibus Spending Orgy rubber stamped by the Obama Republicans in Congress last week – there is actually hope that we have turned the corner against the Republican Establishment wing of the Washington Cartel.

It reminds me of the old adage about going bankrupt – first it happens slowly and then suddenly. That seems to describe the fall of the GOP establishment. The reality they face today is totally different from the one in 2014 – let alone 2012, 2010 and 2008. And yet, without some of the efforts in those cycles, we might not be rounding these corners now.

Consider: Donald Trump, Sen. Ted Cruz (R-TX) and Ben Carson – all enemies of the establishment – are getting almost two thirds of the support from Republican voters. Meanwhile, the cabal of Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Chris Christie combine for only about a sixth of the voters’ support. And of course, Graham limped off the stage this week with less than 1 percent support. Remember, this is just a year after getting 60 percent-plus of the vote for the Senate. He’s not even making it to the S.C. Primary now.

It’s so bad out there that the establishment will probably now throw in with Sen. Marco Rubio (R-FL) as their champion. To be sure, with his Gang of Eight dalliance and some other situations, it’s easy now to simply lump Rubio in as typical establishment. That’s not totally accurate, however.

Remember, Rubio burst onto the scene by destroying one of the establishment’s all-time favorites – Charlie Crist – who was a sitting governor at the time. This was considered a stunning development, and one wonders if, say, a man named Ted Cruz would have tried the same audacious thing in Texas without Rubio’s success. This demonstrates that politics are a continuum of events, not a series of un-related stories in a 24/7 news cycle universe.

After a frustrating season fighting the establishment in the 2014 primaries – all except forRep. Dave Brat (R-VA)’s take down of Eric Cantor – things are likely to be different this time. It appears that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is indeed in trouble this go round in Arizona – trailing Kelli Ward by 9 points in recent polls. Six years ago, J.D. Hayworth laid the groundwork for this. He forced McCain to spend $20 million plus – on a primary – in a small media state! It was more money than McCain had spent in all primary and general elections for Senate combined! It showed that McCain could be beaten under the right circumstances.

With Trump, Cruz and Carson leading a growing anti-establishment movement, these are now the right circumstances. This will play out all over the country.

Two years ago in North Carolina, Greg Brannon ran a hard uphill race against Karl Rove’s handpicked challenger to face Kay Hagan, Sen. Thom Tillis (R-NC). Brannon finished one point short of forcing a run-off with Tillis – and now ironically – as bad as Tillis is, he’s N.C.’s best senator. The other one is another of Rove’s chosen ones named Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC), a classic below the radar House of Cards Republican – and Brannon is now challenging him.

Will it be different? Probably so. We could see Trump, Cruz, Carson et al steam into primary day in the state at 60 plus per cent. Those would almost all be Brannon voters – and this is not lost on Brannon and his team. This kind of mobilization dynamic cannot occur in an off-year election, but it will in 2016 – and not just in Arizona and North Carolina.

And speaking of Rove, we reported a few days ago that his Crossroads Super PAC family appears headed for a 90 percent reduction in donations for 2016 compared to what it raised in 2012. For better or worse, the donor class is now rejecting the Washington wizard consulting class – and putting together their own teams and their own strategies. What it demonstrates is that there is now a bigger than ever awareness of the isolation, weakness and corruption of the Republican establishment.

It’s all coming into focus suddenly now, but it’s been happening gradually. When McCain won S.C. by a wide margin in 2008, it led to his clinching of the nomination in Florida. Just eight years ago, very few voters in that state had any awareness of the GOP-e. In 2010,Sen. Rand Paul (R-KY) and Rubio and others stormed the gates of Washington and won – because the establishment was not yet aware of the strength of the base.

By 2012, the battle lines were starting to get more clarified. At different times, Michelle Bachmann, Herman Cain, Rick Santorum and Newt Gingrich showed significant push back strength against the establishment. (Okay, Santorum has been a pawn in the establishment game in his past, but not in ’12). In the end however, Newt blew it and establishment money and media presence (think Fox News and Wall Street Journal) over whelmed everyone else and nominated Romney.

After Romney’s debacle, Cruz reinforced the battle lines with his shut down filibuster in 2013. Then events in 2014 like Sen. Thad Cochran (R-MS)’s shameless race-baiting campaign led by the Barbour mafia in Mississippi really ripped the mask off the monster for everyone to see. Then, after a huge win in that election, the party led by Sen. Mitch McConnell (R-KY) and Rep. John Boehner (R-OH) then went into a mode of pre-emptive surrender. So traumatized by the cancellation of Washington cocktail party invitations due to Cruz’ actions, the establishment just went full Obama all the time.

What they didn’t realize is that now their masks have been removed. Have we beaten them yet? No, not completely. But they have been unraveling slowly for years – but they’re rapidly becoming undone now. I’ve been fighting them since 1992 – and never thought I’d see a day like this. Stephen K. Bannon says daily on Breitbart Radio that we are going to turn this thing around.

He may be right after all.

 

http://www.breitbart.com/big-government/2015/12/24/a-rove-stupid-me...

[kevin kiernan]

You say Santorum was a pawn for the establishment in the past. DV , You see that situation clear (IMO). Rick has changed for sure. I think God in his heart is what helped him grow strong in a moral direction. I like him , but I think he would be over bearing as a leader.I do like that he has a platform to speak from.I would like to see him play a roll in the next POTUS`s administration.I just wanted to inject my thoughts on Rick. Do not find to many chances to talk about him, for some reason.I am surprised he is not doing better in Iowa.. I am starting to lose faith in Iowans to be the lead off state. They seem to be all over the place...Maybe it`s just me.. idk..

[Dmitri Veans]

Minorities line up behind ... Donald Trump
Read more at http://www.wnd.com/2015/12/minorities-line-up-behind-donald-trump/#...

 

As the headline suggests we are seeing poll strength for Trump from blacks and Hispanics in the mid 40's this is unheard of in modern politics. GW Bush pulled the most at 18% and what this predicts is a Reagan style romp on election day. Democratic presidents cant get elected with out 75% of Hispanics and 85 to 90% of blacks.

 

For some idea of a what if this held to election day go to the link below and change the spots for blacks and Hispanics to 40% and show an increase in white non collage grads with an increase in voter participation this would reflect what took place with Reagan and Nixon. Note how few states stay blue.   

 

http://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/2016-swing-the-election/