Trump wins? How The Election Looks Right Now

[kathyet]

Trump wins? How The Election Looks Right Now

November 7, 2016 by The Horn News

It all comes down to this. With just one day to go until the 2016 presidential election polls officially open, political analysts and statisticians are busy pouring over numbers.

According to polling data, the race is neck and neck in the popular vote. The Los Angeles Times reported Monday that Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump is up five points, while IBP/TIPP has Trump up just two points over rival Hillary Clinton. Meanwhile, Bloomberg polls have Clinton over Trump by three.

But the real story is the electoral college — and how red things are turning. In battleground state after battleground state, pollsters have noticed that Trump is taking a lead. In Ohio, Arizona, Nevada, Florida, Iowa, Trump appears to be outpacing Clinton among undecided voters.

But victory looks like it will go through New England. In both New Hampshire and parts of Maine, Trump has gained a groundswell of support in recent days.

With that, and the lead he’s gained in the South, here’s how the map looks.

 

Click the map to create your own at 270toWin.com

That image should keep Clinton supporters up tonight.

http://bwcentral.org/2016/11/trump-wins-how-the-election-looks-righ...

[kathyet]

Prediction for tonight: Trump by 5 (still)

November 8, 2016

http://www.americanthinker.com/blog/2016/11/prediction_for_tonight_...

By Andrew Grant White

Crunch time!  So suck it up and vote!

Okay, even I admit to butterflies right now.  Who wouldn't?  But the song remains the same: Trump +5%.  Simply have confidence, and make it so.

Flawed MSM polls have come in from Clinton +8% to Clinton +4%.  Color me surprised.  It wasn't majority Comey impact; it was reality intruding close to the election.  Funny how the preferred three daily polls (L.A. Times/USC, IBD/TIPP, and Rasmussen) have all held their ground or shown Trump to be net gaining.  Specifically, they have risen to collective net Trump +2%.

To read about my prior reasoning, click here.  In the meantime, let's summarize how we add three more points to Trump's popular vote.

Polls are lies invented to influence voters and create their own news, which calls for focus on the logical (historically) outperforming ones.  Party sampling is using 2012 turnout, which even absentee ballots have put the lie to already.  And then there's the Bradley Effect (yes, it's real – or are you talking pro-Trump at the office and at parties and keeping your Trump signs?).

Collectively, then, the most accurate polls are currently at Trump +2%, and the rest of the polling errors I suspect add up to at least another 3% differential.  That's Trump +5%...still.

Don't come all this way to give up now.  Summon up the courage and vote.  History is watching rather close on this one.  Be counted.

GOOD LUCK MR. TRUMP!!!!

[kathyet]

Election Day Polls Show Trump Winning In Unexpected Landslide

Posted on November 8, 2016 by Baxter Dmitry in News, US // 0 Comments

Latest polls adjusted to reflect realistic voter turnout show Trump winning the U.S. election in a huge landslide victory.

Realclearpolitics.com has the following electoral map right now. They did an average of all the leading polls to get this map.

Electoral vote totals in the “safe states” (red or blue) are:

Trump (red): 164

Hillary (blue): 203

In the remaining gray states, what’s going on?

The pollsters say those states are a toss-up. But they’re wrong.

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Early Voting In Florida Shows Trump Winning Election By Landslide

Polls Show Trump Winning Texas By Landslide

Here’s why:

• Pollsters are wrong on the percentage of white voters relative to other voting groups.
• Pollsters have over sampled Democrats in key states
• Pollsters are ignoring the increased Republican turnout this year.
• Pollsters are underestimating the numbers of Democrats voting for Trump – the “Trumpocrats.”

Statespoll.com has gone state-by-state and adjusted the polls for these factors. Each day, they publish realistic numbers for key states.

Here are the latest results for key states (click on the adjusted numbers to see the analysis for each state):

North Carolina: Trump +9.1%
Remington, 11/1-11/2, 2596 Likely Voters
TRUMP 48% | Hillar 45% | Johnson 3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 50.9% | Hillary 41.8% | Johnson 3.3%

Florida: Trump +6.7%
YouGov 11/2-11/4, 1188 Registered Voters
TRUMP 45% | Hillary 45% | Johnson 4% | Stein 2%
Adjusted: TRUMP 48.1% | Hillary 41.4% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 2.8%

Colorado: Trump +5.9%
Gravis, 11/1-11/2, 1125 RV
Hillary 40% | TRUMP 40% | Johnson 7% | Stein 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 42.9% | Hillary 37%

Pennsylvania: Trump +3.3%
Remington 11/1-11/2, 2683 Likely Voters
Hillary 46% | TRUMP 45% | Johnson 4%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.6% | Hillary 43.6% | Johnson 4.4%
Note from Statespoll.com: Remington didn’t include stein, with Stein perhaps hillary’s numbers could be minus 1~2%.

New Hampshire: Trump +2.9%
Emerson. 11/4-11/5. 1000 Likely Voters
Hillary 45.4% | TRUMP 43.8% | Johnson 4.5% | Stein 3.3%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.3% | Hillary 43.4%

Nevada: Trump +.45%
Emerson 11/4-11/5, 600 Likely Voters
Hillary 46.8% | TRUMP 45.8% | Johnson 3.9% | Stein 1.1%
Adjusted: TRUMP 46.5% | Hillary 46.05%

With those six states in the Trump column plus Ohio and Georgia (Trump +5.2%) and several others, here’s what Statespoll.com believes the election will look like:

Bottom line: When you adjust the polls for real voters in 2016, you get very different results.

You get:

Trump: 315 electoral votes

Hillary: 200

Toss up: 23

That’s what real polling numbers show.

They’re showing a Trump landslide!

http://yournewswire.com/election-day-polls-trump-win-landslide/

[kathyet]

Three Towns in New Hampshire Have Already Officially Voted

Zach Montanaro | 4 hours ago

You might not realize it, but some polls in the presidential election have already closed.

The three towns of Dixville Notch, Millsfield, and Hart’s Location in northern New Hampshire have already completed voting and have reported their official results. That’s due to a quirky state law that allows towns with fewer than 100 voters to close the polls after all eligible voters have cast their ballots.

Each town took about a minute total to vote, with polls opening exactly at midnight and then closing a few moments later once all votes had been submitted.

Dixville Notch, a town with a total population of 12 based on the 2010 census, recorded four votes for Hillary Clinton, two for Donald Trump, one for Gary Johnson, and one write-in vote for Mitt Romney.

Millsfield, a town of 23 people, recorded 16 votes for Trump, four for Clinton, and one write-in vote going to Bernie Sanders.

Hart’s Location, the largest of the three towns with 41 people, reported 17 votes for Clinton, 14 for Trump, three for Johnson, two write-ins for Bernie Sanders, and one vote for a ticket with John Kasich and Bernie Sanders for president and vice-president, respectively.

That brings the official tally of the 2016 presidential election (as of 10 a.m. on Election Day) to: Trump with 32 votes, Clinton with 25 votes, Johnson with four votes, and five votes for folks who aren't on the ballot.

Other than these few towns, we won’t hear of any more official results until the first polls in Indiana and Kentucky close at 6 p.m. EST.

 

With something like 0.002% nationwide reporting:
Trump: 48.5%
Clinton: 37.9%
Johnson: 6.1%
Sanders: 4.5%
Romney: 1.5%
Kasich/Sanders: 1.5%

— Alex Yoder (@AlexYoder) November 8, 2016

http://www.mrctv.org/blog/three-towns-new-hampshire-have-already-of...

[Virginia Foulk]

Trump WINS!! But now will the Electoral College do the right thing.  There was one who said that if, He'd vote for another.  Here's hoping that the ones will accept our votes, in each state. And vote for America..   

[M]

Virginia,

If the electoral college does something like that it would mean an end to the electoral college itself and probably Civil War. Not to mention the elector would be putting their life in extreme danger.

[Virginia Foulk]

Right you are, and here in Wisconsin, the rural voters finally stood up against the Government. No more Obama's legacy. And I'm not backing down to any more Government takeover.

[M]

Our work to take back America  is just starting. 

[charles royer]

Civil Service reform should be near the top of Trump’s agenda He needs this to fix the VA

Read more: http://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2016/11/civil_service_refor...
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