Nightmare scenario for establishment: Trump or Cruz

[Dmitri Veans]

Nightmare scenario for establishment: Trump or Cruz

 

Three candidates for the Republican nomination have broken away from the rest of the pack, and two of them — businessman Donald Trump and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz — give the GOP establishment nightmares.

That leaves the third member of the trio, Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, potentially well placed to pick up the support of center-right Republican voters who are looking for someone to stop Trump and Cruz at almost any cost. 

But Rubio is behind both of his top-tier rivals in national polling averages and is even further back in Iowa, home to the first-in-the-nation caucuses, where he holds fourth place, albeit behind the fast-fading Ben Carson.

An even deeper problem for the Florida senator is that other candidates who are competing for the same voters are unlikely to drop out before the New Hampshire primary. That means votes that might otherwise go to Rubio could instead be won by contenders such as former Florida Gov. Jeb Bush, New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie and Ohio Gov. John Kasich.

Add all these factors together and it becomes clear why establishment Republicans are so concerned, especially in the wake of Trump’s inflammatory call to ban Muslims from entering the United States. Cruz, meanwhile, has been enjoying a rapid rise in the polls.

“Listen, I think both Cruz and Trump would have a similar impact on the party, neither of which would be very good. I am actually more concerned about Cruz than I am about Trump,” said GOP strategist John Feehery, a former senior leadership aide who is a columnist for The Hill.

Feehery added, “I think Cruz has made a reputation of relentless mendacity ... I think he’s a demagogue and I think he’ll destroy the party. I think Trump is much more of a blowhard. But there’s not really a dime’s worth of difference between Trump and Cruz.”

As of Wednesday afternoon, Trump sat atop the RealClearPolitics national polling average, with the backing of 29.3 percent of GOP voters, with Cruz in second, at 15.5 percent. Rubio was just behind, with 14.8 percent. In Iowa, where the first caucuses will be held on Feb. 1, Cruz runs much closer, with 22.3 percent average support to Trump’s 25.7 percent. Rubio is farther behind in the Hawkeye State than nationally, drawing 13.7 percent backing.

Trump’s comments calling for a “shutdown” of Muslims entering the U.S. have been condemned by many Republicans, as well as Democrats and unaligned observers. Included among his critics are Speaker Paul Ryan (R-Wis.) and Senate Majority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.), who both lambasted him on Tuesday. The condemnation of a party’s presidential front-runner by that same party’s most senior members of Congress is without precedent, at least in modern times.

The opprobrium from on high will not necessarily doom Trump. A Bloomberg Politics poll released Wednesday indicated that 64 percent of likely Republican primary voters supported the idea of temporarily banning Muslims from coming to America. 

But Washington Republicans shake their heads at the damage they believe the real estate tycoon is inflicting on the party’s image. They are also enraged about his suggestion that he could mount a third-party run if he is not treated in a way that he deems fair during the GOP primary process.

“Donald Trump says he might make a third-party run if he is mistreated by the party, but Donald Trump has severely mistreated the Republican Party with his outlandish and over-the-top statements against Hispanics, women and now against religion in terms of Muslims,” said Ron Bonjean, a GOP consultant and former aide to House and Senate Republican leaders.

Bonjean expressed less outrage about Cruz personally, but just as much skepticism about his chances of prevailing in a general election.

Alluding to reports that Cruz and his advisers believe he can win the White House by boosting enthusiasm and turnout solely among the conservative base, Bonjean said, “If Cruz would follow through on his promise not to court the middle, we would lose the general election.”

The Cruz camp has also made the case it can win over “Reagan Democrats” in the general election, though some Republicans are skeptical.

All of the GOP establishment angst could be good news for Rubio. The fact that he has now achieved a degree of separation from other establishment-friendly choices such as Bush, Kasich and Christie could create a snowball effect where more voters are drawn to his banner.

Asked if the shift toward Rubio could pick up speed, South Carolina GOP strategist Dave Woodard said, “I think it could — and the reason is, he says all the right things.”

Woodard, who is also a professor of political science at Clemson University, outlined the traits that many people believe would make Rubio a strong candidate in a general election, including his youth, his oratorical ability and his heritage as the son of Cuban immigrants.

“People who are concerned about losing again — and that’s what it boils down to — might say, ‘I hadn’t really considered Rubio but he looks like the best establishment choice. I might go with him,’ ” Woodard said.

Others who favor establishment candidates caution that Rubio does not have that segment of the party anywhere close to locked down, however. 

Feehery said he believes that Rubio is the candidate Democrats fear the most, but added that he isn’t sure the center-right vote would necessarily coalesce around him. He noted that Christie has been gaining ground in New Hampshire, and added, “I wouldn’t count Bush out.” 

He noted that previous candidates who have appealed to the establishment wing in both major parties have come through dire straits to win the nomination in the end. He cited Sen. John McCain (R-Ariz.) in 2008 and then-Sen. John Kerry (D-Mass.) in 2004 as examples.

Centrist Republicans believe the party needs to act soon in order to defeat Trump and Cruz.

“There needs to be a consolidation of candidates that attract white-collar and establishment voters, and that will compete for the nomination,” said Bonjean. “At this point, you are seeing some movement in the establishment toward Rubio — a little bit. It feels like a plate-shifting is happening.”

http://thehill.com/homenews/campaign/262744-nightmare-scenario-for-establishment-trump-or-cruz

[Dmitri Veans]

Not a personal attack just a point in fact, you are the only person on the board that gets angry and attacks Trump. We all see it, we all read it. Elite in both parties and you are doing what you can to destroy him. 

[DE]

Donald Trump Isn´t the Problem. Trump Derangement Syndrome Is.

American Thinker, by Eugene Slaven    Original Article

Posted By: Desert Fox- 12/12/2015 7:44:17 AM     Post Reply

My Facebook feed is inundated with indignant Republicans excoriating Donald Trump for his comments about Muslim immigrants. This has been a recurring theme since Trump announced his candidacy last spring: Republicans who don´t like Trump express outrage over Trump´s off-color or problematic remarks and spend the next six news cycles distancing themselves from Trump. What Trump´s Republican detractors don´t realize is that their Trump Derangement Syndrome is playing directly into the left´s hands. That´s because the Obama administration and the Clinton campaign, overwhelmed by the Islamic terrorist threat whose name they lack the moral courage to even utter, use the GOP´s vociferous

[DE]

You have proved it over and over agin in your own posts Blades..and that said ..You have harassed DV and Kev  and me constantly...DV is busy fighting for God and country here as we all are ..he has no time for you..You are struggling to remain relevant...Get a grip Blades

[BLADES]

DE why are you butting into DV's personal attacks on me ...have you nothing better to do...talk about wanting to be relevant mind your own business...your looking desperate

[DE]

New Des Moines Register Iowa Poll – Ted Cruz Jumps Staggering 21 Points and Leads with 31%…

Conservative Treehouse, by Sundance    Original Article

Posted By: earlybird- 12/13/2015 10:00:07 AM     Post Reply

According to the latest Des Moines Register Poll, (full pdf below) of 400 Republican caucus goers, candidate Ted Cruz has surged into the lead with 31% support – a gain of 21 points since DMR’s previous polling: (Poll Data Graphic)According to the Des Moines Register Cruz’s ascent is the largest and fastest rise in the history of Iowa Caucus polling. (read full analysis)

[Dmitri Veans]

The media wants Rubio, so even as his numbers slide from recent highs they continue to tell us it a Rubio Cruz race for second. Tomorrow night watch because many will go after Trump and Cruz and it will be how they handle the attacks that sets them apart. This very well could be a defining moment for Cruz as he has the best debate skills. We will see.

[DE]

Sounds good DV....God have mercy on Trump..several hard left groups are calling for someone to shoot him...That tells you who th emedia is scared to death of...Who knows what will happen next..this is getting scary...No matter what lies ahead...Trump has done much good for America by bringing back plain down to earth..language in Politics and only the ashes of PC remain...

[BLADES]

DE

do you have a link of these groups that are calling for him to be shot...I have not heard about these ...I have heard about the ONE guy that said that his supporters should be shot.....thank god I'm safe...

but Please provide a link or name of these groups

[Rhodes]

That we are in demonization phase of the roundup only the one ACLU , oh has that institution fallen, board member said such publicly. What such things point to solidly is what is said privately with ease.

Being shot is just a little further down the road and yet clearly seen.

What they do not understand is that bunch will shoot back.

[Dmitri Veans]

Actually it was an ACLU leader that condoned shooting Trump supporters, he was forced to resign after the comments because the blue collar ACLU members were pissed off. Still think your Hillary has a chance. LOL

Blacks moving for Trump, Union members supporting Trump, its a wonderful day when the PC crowd has everyone pissed off. 

[kevin kiernan]

Rhodes  tell me not a Hillary supporter.

[Rhodes]

HA!

Thanks I needed that