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October 14, 2015, 01:58 pm
Donald Trump is holding double-digit leads over Ben Carson in the early-voting states of Nevada and South Carolina, according to a CNN/ORC poll released on Wednesday.
The GOP White House front-runner has 36-percent support from Republican voters in South Carolina, the third state to vote in the presidential primary. He is followed by retired neurosurgeon Carson with 18 percent support, Sen. Marco Rubio (Fla.) at 9 percent, former business executive Carly Fiorina at 7 percent, and former Gov. Jeb Bush (Fla.) with 6 percent support.
In Nevada, the fourth state to vote, Trump garners 38-percent support, followed by Carson at 22 percent, Fiorina with 8-percent support, Rubio with 7 percent, and Bush with 6-percent support.
The poll also comes as other national surveys show Carson cutting into Trump's lead overall. But the bigwig billionaire still holds double-digit leads over the fast-rising Carson by 16 points in Nevada and 18 points in South Carolina. In both states, they are well ahead of the pack, with the third-place finisher below 10-percent support.
The poll highlights Trump’s popularity among voters when it comes to the economy, immigration and electability.
Sixty-seven percent of respondents in Nevada and 59 percent in South Carolina say the real estate mogul is the best man to handle the economy, which was the top issue for voters in both states.
When asked which candidate would do best on illegal immigration, 55 percent in Nevada and 51 percent in South Carolina chose Trump.
And nearly half of respondents in each state, 47 percent in Nevada and 44 percent in South Carolina, said Trump is the most electable candidate in the GOP field.
Trump also takes the highly coveted white, evangelical vote in South Carolina, which made up two-thirds of its 2012 primary vote, by a 32- to 24-percent margin over Carson.
The CNN/ORC poll surveyed 521 likely Republican voters in South Carolina and 285 in Nevada from Oct. 3 to Oct. 10. The margin of error in South Carolina is 4.5 percent and 6 percent in Nevada.
http://thehill.com/blogs/ballot-box/polls/256922-poll-trump-tops-ca...
I can't believe a 521 voter survey gets headline attention and some people buy into it that it is a legitimate representation of the republican voting mood. This isn't a representative sample to give you an accurate count on a district in SC let alone a statewide election. These polls are taken to boost the ratings of the media and they have no direct correlation to the election process outcome.
Jack: agreed, something like 500 voter sample is far from enough. One needs at least 1000 for a state. However, if several pollsters use only 500 and results agree, then you have the large accumulated number.
Marrand, polls taken this far in advance of a primary election has no value. If they were taken much closer to the election and they matched results of other pollsters you could speculate they have some accuracy but, in general, all pollsters are not very accurate with their predictions. At this time, less than 20% of the public is paying any attention of the election. Most voters will not respond to a poll and if they do their response is emotional and will have no reflection on how they will vote or even if they will vote. That is why polls are not reliable. Just map the poll data over the span of an election and you can easily see how far off they are. They have no scientific methodology that would lead to a more accurate data. Only the party leadership has means to collect real voter mood and the information is guarded by just a few people. If the average person makes their decision purely on poll data they are badly misinformed.
Jack: this is very interesting. I am aware of the inaccuracy of polls, and especially of their relevancy this early in the game. But I don't understand how the party leadership can measure the "real voter mood" while numerous other polling organizations don't? How can party leadership maintain this secret from the polling organizations? People do move from job to job, and I can't imagine how such knowlege can be kept secret very long.
So, by your reasoning, I the average person, read polling data, conclude that Trump is leading by big margins among registered Republican voters. Then I watch him getting huge crowds for his speeches, watch the applause and enthusiasm, while no other candidate can get even a quarter of that. So, I the average person, conclude the polls are giving me the correct picture of the Republican voter today. Where am I going wrong?
Ahead of its required disclosure of third quarter fundraising, the Jeb Bush campaign says it is cutting back and being more frugal in its campaign spending. With the upcoming report, the last bit of Bush’s inevitability argument is likely to evaporate.
Interesting. As bad as Jeb is in debates, he would easily beat Hillary on one-to-one encounter. Hillary looks good only when all those around are on her side.
Yes she is only a success when there are those around her who enable her lies and corruption. Jeb as weak in the knees as he is could easily beat her.
I am always right. As I predicted in July, Donald Trump has electrified an otherwise soporific field of GOP candidates and exhibited real staying power. He has captured the attention of Republican voters. In defiance of his critics, who see him as either
No, I don't think there is any evidence that Trump has captured the attention of Republican voters. He has captured the attention of most of the conservative voters and the MSM, but the conservative vote will not get you the election, not even the nomination. There is no way for us outsiders to predict who will win the nomination
Jack: I am curious - who are the "us outsiders" you are talking about? As I understand it, all the polls which show Trump leading by wide margin were done among registered Republican voters only.
Or, do you think only conservative Republicans are for Trump?
And, are you suggesting that if Trump does get the nomination, the other Republicans, those who today are for Bush or Rubio or Fiorina or Christie won't vote for him in the November election?
It is going to be interesting in how Trump will manage to keep his name on the top of the news cycles when Joe announces. He managed to tell cnbc how the rules would go on the debate. I have to admit, he has got many people excited in politics. Now if that turns into votes for him we will see.He does have a knack of getting his way. "Incredible"
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