Has Trump awakened Nixon's "Silent Majority" or the "Reagan Democrat"

[Dmitri Veans]

The Gallup poll. December, 1979.

President Jimmy Carter — 60%. Former California Governor Ronald Reagan — 36%. So confident was Carter White House Chief of Staff Hamilton Jordan of the coming year’s presidential election that he boasted: “The American people are not going to elect a seventy-year-old, right-wing, ex-movie actor to be president.” Hamilton Jordan was a smart guy — and he was also wildly wrong. A little less than a year later the American people — ignoring that Gallup poll — elected Ronald Reagan to the presidency in a landslide — in a three-way race. Reagan won 50.8% of the vote to Carter’s 41%. Third party candidate John Anderson, a liberal Republican who had been defeated by Reagan in the GOP primaries, won a mere 6.6% of the vote. Reagan carried 44 states to Carter’s six plus the District of Columbia.

What happened? How could Reagan go from losing a Gallup poll to Carter by 24 points — then winning the actual election by almost 10 points? Answer? The emergence of what would become known to political history as “the Reagan Democrats.” Who were they? Blue collar, working class, largely Catholic and ethnic, they originally emerged in Richard Nixon’s 1968 and 1972 elections. In which Nixon referred to them as the “Silent Majority.” In 1980, angered by Carter’s handling of the economy, the feckless handling of the Iran hostage crisis, and the left-wing tilt of the Democrats, these voters — many of whom had voted for John F. Kennedy twenty years earlier — returned with a vengeance. Famously, Macomb County, Michigan, which cast 63% of its vote for JFK in 1960, turned around in 1980 and voted 66% for Reagan.

On Tuesday night of this week, Donald Trump appeared in Birch Run, Michigan in Saginaw County. Here’s the headline from the Detroit Free Press:

A lovefest for Donald Trump in Birch Run

The story begins:

BIRCH RUN, Mich. — Addressing about 2,000 very enthusiastic people at the Birch Run Expo Center, Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump touched on everything from immigration, China, the military, Obamacare and his Republican opponents.

The crowd, some coming from outside of Michigan, ate it up, giving him frequent standing ovations and breaking into chants of “Trump, Trump, Trump!” and “U.S.A, U.S.A.”

The obvious question. Are Reagan Democrats returning to the center of the American political scene — this time known as Trump Democrats?

A new CNN poll in Iowa has some very revealing stats. The poll notes:

Donald Trump has a significant lead in the race to win over likely Iowa caucus-goers, according to the first CNN/ORC poll in the state this cycle. Overall, Trump tops the field with 22% and is the candidate seen as best able to handle top issues including the economy, illegal immigration and terrorism. He’s most cited as the one with the best chance of winning the general election, and, by a wide margin, as the candidate most likely to change the way things work in Washington.

The poll targets Republicans only. But as in 1980 with Reagan, it doesn’t take much imagination to think that Trump’s overwhelming lead in categories like those with less than a college education or those earning less than $50,000 bodes well for his ability to win Democratic votes in considerable numbers.

A curiosity here is the reaction of Trump opponent Senator Rand Paul, who seems in his wrath at Trump to be channeling the late GOP Establishment champion President Gerald Ford. Headlines the Washington Post of a new Paul commercial attacking Trump:

New Rand Paul video basically calls Donald Trump a closet Democrat 

The Post reports:

Kentucky Sen. Rand Paul’s presidential campaign on Wednesday released an aggressive attack video questioning business mogul Donald Trump’s conservative bona fides.

“I probably identify more as a Democrat,” Trump is shown saying in the video. “I’ve been around for a long time, and it just seems that the economy does better under the Democrats than the Republicans.” The words imposed on the screen as Trump speaks: “I … IDENTIFY MORE AS A DEMOCRAT.” [The all-caps are all theirs.]

Hmmm. Compare the Paul attack with this story about the 1976 GOP primary campaign in Texas between Ronald Reagan and then-President Ford. Records Reagan biographer Steven F. Hayward in the first volume of his book The Age of Reagan: The Fall of the Old Liberal Order: 1964-1980:

During the Texas campaign Reagan began using a signature line in his appeal for crossover votes: “I was a Democrat most of my life.” Ford and the Republican Establishment professed outrage. Imagine! Seeking Democratic votes! (As if a Republican could win the White House without Democratic votes.)… The idea of “Reagan Democrats” had not yet entered the political lexicon.

Just as Trump is now seen on tape saying he was a Democrat, so too was Reagan cited for the same issue. In fact, as heard here in this YouTube audio tape, there is Reagan captured singing the praises of Harry Truman in a 1948 speech endorsing Truman and also then-Minneapolis Mayor Hubert Humphrey who was running for the U.S. Senate — and would later become the 1968 Democratic nominee for president. Listening to the tape of Reagan and he sounds like nothing more than a late forties version of Barack Obama — railing against corporations and Republicans.

One is flummoxed that Senator Paul — as reported in the Los Angeles Times — was not long ago demanding that the GOP reach out to minorities — aka Democrats. Headlined the Times:

 

Rand Paul in Irvine says Republicans must broaden appeal to minorities

The story drove the point home:

As he traveled through Southern California on a two-day trip, Republican Sen. Rand Paul called on his party Friday to widen its outreach to minority voters, whom he said will help propel the party to victories nationwide.…

“People want know how we're going to win?” he said. “We're going to have to be different. We're going to have to be the new GOP.”…

In a brief interview with The Times before his speech, Paul, who has labeled himself a “different kind of Republican,” said his message of party outreach to minorities has resonated.…

“I don't care if it’s in an all-white evangelical church or all-Republican gathering, people need to hear it,” he said. “I’m a believer that for the Republican Party to grow, we need to be a broader, more diverse party.”

Amazing, no? On the one hand Senator Paul is demanding outreach to become a “broader, more diverse party.” When Trump does just that — like the 1976 Ford campaign and GOP Establishment suddenly Paul recoils, professing outrage at Trump’s background as a Democrat — precisely the same charge hurled at Reagan by Ford.

You can’t make this stuff up.

There is a long, long way to go in this campaign. But one suspects that Donald Trump — as was true in that blue collar, auto-making state of Michigan the other night — is in the process of demonstrating just what Ronald Reagan once demonstrated to great effect.

Namely? Namely that having once been a Democrat is in fact nothing but an asset for a potential Republican nominee for president. The kind of asset that produces landslide Republican victories.

 

http://spectator.org/articles/63765/are-reagan-democrats-becoming-trump-democrats

[Dmitri Veans]

The only likely republican voter poll by a major polling organization has the race as follows.

 

Trump  36%

Carson 17%

Cruz    10.7

Bush   10.7

Rubio   6.7

 

What a lot of people don't know is most of the polls released include the views of independents and democrat's. They will all switch from all voters to likely GOP voters just weeks before the actual elections start. That when national polls will go from propaganda to almost real. As we all know the media want Rubio, so he looks good in recent polls of all voters, he's not doing as well with the base. 

[DE]

They know how to do it to get the results that they want...I trust Rasmussen the most...Zogby is an Arab run polling group..very untrustworthy...I haven't looked or heard of them in years..I guess most found out that they were total democrats...

[Dmitri Veans]

Inside the beltway, the truth comes out! Quote from a  McConnell staffer:

 

"Trump could be the party’s nominee and imperil the careers of other Republicans."

 

Our Washington elite are concerned they will be swept out of office in favor of real conservatives.

 

You just have to love what's taking place as the left inside and outside the GOP feels the heat. 

[Virginia Foulk]

Wouldn't that be great.

[DE]

A thing of beauty Virginia.........

[Dmitri Veans]

Here is a first, based on today's CNN/ORC poll the two who spent the least money on adds are polling number 1 and 2.  This tells me more people are paying attention to the candidates and more are getting their news from the Internet. This must be scaring the poop out of the establishment and the media.

 

• Team Bush: $28.9 million

• Team Rubio: $10.6 million 

• Team Kasich: $8 million

• Team Christie: $6.4 million

• Team Carson: $2 million
• Team Paul: $869,000

• Team Cruz: $665,000

• Team Trump: $217,000

[DE]

Great  DV..Money is NOT everything in this election cycle...We are growing Conservatives through out the land..Almost all are becoming CONSERVATIVES...Grass Roots Patriots...means Turnout will be like nothing we have ever seen in this great Nation!!!!!!!!!

[Dmitri Veans]

Donald Trump Forges New Blue-Collar Coalition Among Republicans

Donald Trump has built his leading position in the Republican primary race by bringing together an underappreciated segment of the GOP—blue-collar voters who aren’t especially animated by social issues—and who may be setting the stage for an unusual, three-person sprint to the nomination.

Mr. Trump’s appeal is a form of secular populism rarely seen in Republican primary races, and one he is pressing in part with appearances in working-class communities in Iowa that include independent voters and even Democrats who may be lured into the caucuses. The celebrity businessman’s message appears to resonate among voters who believe most strongly that political leaders are unable to put the nation back on track.

Past nominating contests have often boiled down to two-person races in which an establishment-backed front-runner beats a socially conservative candidate who appeals to working-class voters—a role Rick Santorum filled in 2012, as did Mike Huckabee in 2008 and Pat Buchanan in 1996.

Now, Mr. Trump appears to be opening a new, third lane in the GOP, drawing on a large share of voters who don’t have a college degree and don’t identify strongly with the party’s touchstone social issues, such as opposition to abortion rights and gay marriage.

That raises the prospect that the 2016 contest could narrow to a three-person race featuring the leading choice of social conservatives, the top pick of the party’s establishment wing of centrists and business-friendly Republicans—and Mr. Trump.

Polling shows the unusual nature of Mr. Trump’s coalition, which has kept him at the front of the pack in national and early-primary state polls far longer than any nontraditional candidate in 2012.

 

Often, a leading candidate dominates one of the Republican Party’s subgroups, such as social conservatives or budget hawks. But Mr. Trump is seen as an acceptable choice among many types of Republicans.

“He’s cutting across” many Republican segments, said GOP strategist David Winston.

The main quality that unites his supporters is “attitudinal,’’ said Mr. Winston, who advises the House and Senate leadership. Like a majority of Americans, Trump supporters think the nation has gone off track, but they are among the most frustrated that politicians are unable to find a solution.

“It’s opened up an avenue for people who want to hear a candidate say, ‘I want to do this, and I’ll do it no matter what,’ ” Mr. Winston said.

These voters care less about a candidate’s résumé or the nuances of policy than a promise to set a direction and follow through—as when Mr. Trump says he will stop illegal immigration by building a wall on the Southwestern border and make Mexico pay for it.

A Quinnipiac poll this week showed that Mr. Trump’s tone is more important to his supporters than are policy stances. He held a large lead of 10 points over his nearest opponent among Republicans who said the most important attribute for the party nominee is to be a “strong leader.” He has a much smaller lead, 4 points, among those who said “shared values” were most important.

Mr. Trump’s backers tend to be more working class than upper income, with a large share with no college education. In combined Journal/NBC News polling this year, Mr. Trump was the top choice of 25% of all GOP primary voters under age 50 who lack a college degree, but of only 13% with a college degree. The same split appeared among older voters: He won support from 23% with no college degree but only 15% of college graduates. No other candidate showed a similar skew.

A national CNN/ORC survey released Friday showed a similar pattern: Mr. Trump had the support of 46% of registered Republicans with no college degree and a much-smaller 18% of those with a degree. His support was also stronger among voters making less than $50,000 than those earning more. Polls in the early-primary states of Iowa and South Carolina have shown the same character to Mr. Trump’s support there.

Overall, Mr. Trump had a strong lead in the CNN/ORC survey, conducted Nov. 27-Dec. 1, with 36% support. Behind him were Texas Sen. Ted Cruz, with 16%; retired neurosurgeon Ben Carson, at 14%; and Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, at 12%. Others were in low single digits.

Matt Strawn, the former chairman of the Iowa Republican Party, who isn’t working with a presidential candidate, said that Mr. Trump’s appearances in the state suggest that he is convinced blue-collar voters are his best prospects.

Mr. Trump’s schedule in November put him in Newton, known for its now-closed Maytag factory and headquarters, and a town that Mr. Strawn describes as “a traditional, blue-collar community, culturally conservative…but very economic populist.’’ Similarly, Mr. Trump was in Fort Dodge, “a midsize city with a manufacturing, blue-collar workforce a generation ago,’’ and in October, he visited blue-collar Burlington, in the state’s southeast.

Mr. Trump’s appeal lacks the religious inflection of Mr. Huckabee, a former pastor, and Mr. Santorum, a top choice of social conservatives, who reached out to blue-collar voters in the past two elections. In Journal/NBC News polling in late October, Mr. Trump led among GOP primary voters who attend church less than once a week. And Mr. Trump has lagged behind Mr. Carson and Mr. Rubio in Journal/NBC polling this fall when the most socially conservative voters are asked whom they could see themselves supporting.

Mr. Winston said he can’t recall a precedent for Mr. Trump’s base of support in GOP nominating contests, “but then again, we haven’t had ‘wrong track’ [views] be this bad for this long, or political discourse be this frustrated.’’ The closest possible precedent could be Ross Perot, whose 1990s independent and third-party candidacies were built on calls to balance the budget and stop the outsourcing of U.S. jobs.

At least some of Mr. Trump’s support comes from conservative independents and Democrats who say they plan to vote in GOP primaries, and who account for nearly a third of the GOP primary electorate, Journal/NBC polling shows. Mr. Trump is essentially tied with Mr. Carson for the lead among those voters, Journal/NBC surveys through the fall have found.

Mr. Strawn said many of those voters haven't attended Iowa caucuses before, and that Mr. Trump has a challenge in motivating them to attend. His campaign has held calls to train supporters on the mechanics of the caucus. Mr. Strawn notes that Pat Robertson successfully drew new voters to the caucuses to propel his second-place finish in 1988, and that Ron Paul did the same in 2012 on the way to a third-place finish.

One question posed by Mr. Trump’s coalition is whether it creates the greater challenge for social conservatives or for establishment centrists to rally behind a single, favored candidate. By drawing more heavily from less-religious voters than from strong social conservatives, Mr. Trump may most complicate the establishment-wing vote.

Another question is whether Mr. Trump has created a model for building support that future GOP candidates could follow. “Great question,’” said Mr. Strawn. “At present, this appears to be a Trump-specific phenomenon, rather than a new electoral portal for a nonbillionaire, nonreality TV star Republican to follow.’’

 

 

http://www.wsj.com/articles/donald-trump-forges-new-blue-collar-coalition-among-republicans-1449272326

[DE]

Another great post DV....you always give us a good read.....Hey the views on this are astronomical...good job!!!

[DE]

Good evening all...:)

[Dmitri Veans]

Democrats seem to suggest if we fix global warming and enact gun control we defeat ISIS.

 

WOW talk about a group of people detached from reality, it seems even the death of 14 Americans cant derail there political agenda. This was no more evident then when head of the DOJ said this is a wonderful opportunity when talking about the CA shootings. 

[Rhodes]

Yes exactly which why I dont fear them.

Not in the least.

At times I wish they would just puff out their chests and start down the road we know is ahead so it can be done, but I guess some rational residue still remains in those tattered minds.

See they know the armed dont give a damn about what the unarmed think. 

Thus the continuing drama.